I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 12
TOTAL HURRICANES :      4 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin.

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated tropical waves near 26W, 46W, 76W, and 87W
CIMSS 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

I have noticed numerous posts about the Google deep mind, and some of the AI models indicating a possible “low” forming off the SEUS near or around the Carolinas, with tracks showing a westward motion, and possibly across Florida and into the Gulf. The current ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast from 00Z has reduced its probability for cyclone development from 30% during the next 72 – 120 hours to 10% – 15%.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


Based on my analysis today of various models, and going with the ECMWF, none of the models at the moment indicate a closed low, based on the 00Z run, out to 78 hours in the forecast period. However, the ECMWF now indicates slightly lowering MSLP anomalies with a 1016mb trough in the picture, due to a frontal boundary which will be stalling over the area. Conditions are still forecast to be pretty much conducive by that time with a reduction in wind shear, and development of a radial shear pattern. Surface to mid level (700mb) moisture will be conducive, although not optimal. The 200mb streamline forecast indicates a slight improvement of upper level divergence though marginal. Though a closed low is not indicated at the moment, the presence of divergence in the upper atmosphere and favorable shear pattern can cause convergence at the surface, which could allow for a weak low pressure area to form. However, as stated, models do not indicate this at the moment.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, WIND SHEAR, PWAT, AND 700 MB RH FORECAST 78 HOURS




Analysis of the 200 mb streamline forecast indicates marginal divergence aloft.

Bottom line…even though conditions are forecast to be conditionally favorable for development, without the presence of a closed surface low, I do not expect anything to develop in the near future. I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes in the forecast.

I do not expect tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days

Based on analysis of the MJO forecast and CHI200 anomalies forecast, the Atlantic should remain fairly quiet, close to the middle of July. Thereafter, the MJO is slowly moving more toward PHASE 8. The JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast shows the MJO favorable upward motion forecast becoming fairly favorable by around 13 JUL and is backed up by the ECMWF. Favorable upward motion is noted by the blue and green shading in the forecast models. The stronger the blue and green, the more favorable to conditions. Based on this, we could see an uptick in activity around that time frame.
ACCESS – S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST JUL 13 – JUL 26

ECMWF EXT. CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST JUL 13 – JUL 18

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.