I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I will be out of the office from Jul. 22 through the 31st to visit my son in PA.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates an area of low pressure may be trying to develop in response to showers and thunderstorms associated with surface trough and upper level low.
The NHC has increased the probability for development to LOW (30%) during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast has shown an increase in cyclone formation probability to 30%
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
24 – 72 HOURS

24 – 72 HOURS

AREA 1
Based on analysis this afternoon, conditions at the moment are still not favorable for development. The 18Z CIMSS wind shear and upper level winds maps indicate though shear is still below 20 kts, the pattern is cyclonic, and the upper low is not allowing for divergence aloft at the moment
CIMSS 18Z WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


During this mornings analysis, models nor surface analysis maps did not indicate a surface trough. The current surface map from the WPC is just picking up on it. The NHC in its TWO this morning mentioned the upper low and thunderstorms, however did not mention a surface trough in the Gulf. As of the update, they now mention the area associated with a surface trough of low pressure.

From the morning Tropical Discussion:
Upper level low pressure across the east Gulf is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from 25N to 28N and west of 85.5W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.

From the current Tropical Weather Outlook:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida: A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of America is associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.

Base on analysis of current forecast conditions from the ECMWF model, conditions are now forecast to become somewhat more favorable within 24 hours from 12z, or tomorrow morning. The model indicates a slight reduction in wind shear, with development of a somewhat radial shear pattern, and development of somewhat divergent pattern at 200 mb. Both PWAT and 700 mb RH values will be favorable. This may now be enough to allow for some gradual development. By 48 to 72 hours into the forecast period however, upper level winds are still forecast to become unfavorable for any further development. Development of a Tropical Depression is going to depend on how forecast conditions actually play out, and future forward motion of this area.

I will continue to monitor this area closely however for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 72 hours.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.