I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

The NHC has designated the disturbed weather in the Gulf INVEST 91L and has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of development
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast is now indicating an 70% probability for development of a Tropical Depression between 24 – 72 hours out from the 12Z run.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

As of the 18Z (2:00 p.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 91L:
2:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 18
Location: 26.6°N; 84.5°W
Moving: NW at 4 mph
Min pressure: 1015 mb / 29.97 in.
Max sustained: 25 mph

The following is INVEST 91L satellite loop imagery:
INVEST 91L IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY


Satellite loop imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure and the system is disorganized at the moment.

Based on current low level steering mean, and information from the BTK report, INVEST 91L was moving toward the NW at 4 mph. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers, INVEST 91L should continue on a NNW to NW track during the next 72 hours, and the center of the “low” could come ashore by late Tue. over the western FL. Panhandle. Based on this analysis, should nothing change, I prefer the TCLP (Climatology and Persistence) track, given dynamic and consensus models have not been initiated.

RAL 18Z INVEST 91L TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST MAP
Maximum sustained winds were 25mph. Based on analysis of current and forecast wind shear, INVEST 91L is under a non conducive environment. Although wind shear is only around 5 – 10 kts, the current streamline pattern indicates the upper level low is still over the area, thereby not allowing for any divergence aloft. This does not allow for convergence at the surface which is vital for developing a closed surface low. In approximately 24 hours, the shear and 200 mb pattern are forecast to become marginal for some slow development. The current SHIPS diagnostic report indicates wind shear to increase to unfavorable levels in about 48 hours. Although the majority of initial intensity guidance models indicate this becomes a depression in about 36 – 48 hours, however given the forecast of the upper level and wind shear flow not really being conducive for a little faster development, I believe it is going to be a struggle for 91L to accomplish this, unless there is a decent change to forecast conditions. PWAT and 700 mb moisture levels are forecast to remain favorable to marginally favorable.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP

18Z EARLY CYCLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INVEST 91L

The following are forecast 5 day rainfall totals from the WPC

I will continue to monitor INVEST 91L for any significant changes to the forecast. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.