We’re monitoring Invest 91L in the eastern Gulf, which has a chance of developing over the next few days. This is the same broad area of low pressure has been bumping up central Florida’s coastal rain totals these past few days. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of development within the next week.

The latest trends continue to keep any potential system moving away from the Tampa Bay area if it develops. A weaker, less organized system likely travels farther north. Most westward plots account for a slightly stronger system.

For us, the expected impacts have hardly changed. Expect higher rain chances for our coastal communities through Monday. It won’t be an all-day washout, but you can expect a round or two of showers and storms each day.

Rain chances continue to rise along other areas along the northern Gulf coast.

If Invest 91L organizes and strengthens enough to become a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha. It’s worth noting that environmental conditions in the Gulf aren’t especially favorable for rapid strengthening, which is why most forecast models that show development keep the system relatively weak.