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PROTECT YOUR DNA WITH QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.
The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES : 3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP 
The NHC has maintained a MEDIUM (40%) probability for cyclone development regarding INVEST 93L during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)
The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE
The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
72 – 120 HOURS
Satellite loop imagery indicates the system continues to become slowly better organized
INVEST 93L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m.) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available:
8:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 20
Location: 35.6°N; 70.2W
Moving: NNE 7 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph
Based on information in the ATCF report, the system was moving at 10 degrees at 6.0 kts, which equates to a slow NNE motion. Based on current track guidance and forecast steering layers maps, this motion should continue during the next 48 hours, before a more NE motion takes over. At the moment, I prefer the HMNI model track.
RAL 93L EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE
Analysis this morning indicates 93L is under 40 – 45 kts of SWLY shear. Analysis of surface moisture and mid level relative humidity forecast products indicate very limited surface moisture, and increasing dry air at the 500 mb level. The forecast calls for these conditions to remain unchanged.
CIMSS INVEST 93L WIND SHEAR
CIMSS PWAT ANIMATION
CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM
Based on analysis of the ECMWF and current SHIPS diagnostic product, in approximately 48 hours, wind shear is supposed to relax very briefly. However, this should not become favorable enough for a transition to a tropical system. Based on the premise however of the system remaining over the Gulfstream for approximately the next 36 – 48 hours, allowing the system to remain warm core, and the possibility of the system losing its frontal characteristics, 93L could transition to a sub-tropical system. In the event this occurs, we could possibly see sub-tropical storm Josephine.
Regardless of development status, residents along the coastal areas should remain away from the beaches, and small craft should remain in port due to seas of 10 – 12 ft near the coast and maximum individual wave heights of 40 – 50 ft well offshore allowing for coastal flooding and possible beach erosion. I HIGHLY recommend using the NWS Hazards and Warning map at the end of this forecast, as the NWS has issued various watches, warnings and advisories.
I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 3 – 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, SURFACE WIND, GUSTS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST AND MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
Elsewhere, global models are still indicating lowering pressures and development of low pressure IVO the Bahamas in about 5 – 6 days. The models keep this away from the U.S. and take it toward the NE. The area is forecast to be under high wind shear. IF and when the low develops, we will have to see how actual forecast conditions play out, and whether or not this may be frontal in nature or not.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)
PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft. [1, 2]
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