3 hours ago
5
PROTECT YOUR DNA WITH QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.
The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES : 3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP 
The NHC is issuing advisories on Josephine, and has introduced a LOW(10%) probability for cyclone development regarding a trough of low pressure ESE of Bermuda during the next 7 days. At the moment, based on analysis, I am not expecting any significant development from this.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)
The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE
The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
72 – 120 HOURS
JOSEPHINE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Josephine:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 22
Location: 39.2°N; 67.3W
Moving: NE 12 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb / 29.18 in.
Max sustained: 65 mph
Josephine was moving to the NE at 12 mph with an increase in winds to 65 mph. Based on current track guidance and forecast steering layers maps, this motion should continue during the next 36 hours, before a more ENE to eastward motion takes over. At the moment, I prefer a blend of guidance tracks, and agree with the NHC forecast map
JOSEPHINE EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM
Based on analysis of the ECMWF Josephine should be moving out of the Gulfstream soon, and could begin the transition to extratropical late this evening or sometime tomorrow. The current cyclone phase evolution thermal diagram indicates a transition to cold core by Sat. Forecast conditions indicate high shear, and stronger baroclinic processes due to an approaching upper level trough. This would allow the probability of some strengthening, and it’s possible Josephine could produce hurricane force winds. Cyclones intensify east of an upper level trough do to divergence produced aloft and PVA (Positive Vorticity Advection). However, becoming extratropical, it would not be classified as a hurricane. Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast:
INIT 22/1500Z 39.2N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 40.5N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 23/1200Z 42.3N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0000Z 43.4N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1200Z 43.7N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 43.9N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z 43.6N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1200Z…DISSIPATED
Regardless, residents along the coastal areas should remain away from the beaches, and small craft should remain in port, due to high seas allowing for coastal flooding and possible beach erosion and rip currents. I HIGHLY recommend using the NWS Hazards and Warning map at the end of this forecast, as the NWS has issued various watches, warnings and advisories.
I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 2 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, SURFACE WIND, GUSTS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST AND MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
Elsewhere, global models are still indicating lowering pressures and development of low pressure IVO the Bahamas in about 4 days. The models are varying with the GFS and CMC keep this away from the U.S. and take it toward the NE, with the ECMWF indicating the entity moving toward FL. The area is forecast to be under high wind shear. Given the variance in the models and uncertainty of actual development, I will continue to monitor this area.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC
On a side note, I do not believe the season is quite done, as there has been no change in the MJO forecast which indicates a strong phase 2 and 3 signal for at least the next 20 days. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)
PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft. [1, 2]
English (US) · 
French (CA) ·