Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       1
MAJOR HURRICANES:     1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC has maintained a MEDIUM (40%) probability for cyclone development regarding INVEST 93L during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS



72 – 120 HOURS

INVEST 93L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m.) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available:
8:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 21
Location: 37.3°N; 69.5W
Moving: N 4 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb / 29.29 in.
Max sustained: 60 mph

Based on information in the ATCF report, the system was moving at 355 degrees at 3.0 kts, which equates to a slow N motion, with an increase in winds to 60 mph. Based on current track guidance and forecast steering layers maps, this motion should continue during the next 24 hours, before a more NE motion takes over. At the moment, I prefer the HMNI model track.
RAL 93L EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE

Analysis this morning indicates 93L is under 30 – 35 kts of SWLY shear, with shear being forecast to increase in about 24 hours. However, analysis of upper level winds indicate an upper level outflow pattern has developed, which should offset some of the shear. Analysis of surface moisture and mid level relative humidity forecast products indicate very limited surface moisture, and increasing dry air at the 500 mb level. The forecast calls for these conditions to remain unchanged. Based on this, and the cyclone phase evolution analysis thermal diagram, along with recent satellite images, 93L may be trying to transition to sub-tropical. The system has approximately 2 days to accomplish this before becoming cold core due to moving out of the Gulfstream.
CIMSS INVEST 93L WIND SHEAR

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND

CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM

Based on analysis of the ECMWF and current SHIPS diagnostic product, in approximately 24 hours, wind shear is supposed to increase. However, as stated, with the upper level outflow and warm water of the Gulfstream, 93L could transition to a sub-tropical system, and may be attempting this currently, but must disconnect from the frontal boundary. In the event this occurs, we could possibly see sub-tropical storm Josephine.

Regardless of development status, residents along the coastal areas should remain away from the beaches, and small craft should remain in port. due to seas of 8 – 10 ft near the coast and maximum individual wave heights of 40 – 50 ft well offshore allowing for coastal flooding and possible beach erosion. I HIGHLY recommend using the NWS Hazards and Warning map at the end of this forecast, as the NWS has issued various watches, warnings and advisories.

I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 3 – 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, SURFACE WIND, GUSTS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST AND MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST






Elsewhere, global models are still indicating lowering pressures and development of low pressure IVO the Bahamas in about 4 – 5 days. The models keep this away from the U.S. and take it toward the NE. The area is forecast to be under high wind shear. IF and when the low develops, we will have to see how actual forecast conditions play out, and whether or not this may be frontal in nature or not.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC



Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.