I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

Given the updated information for the Oceanic Nino Index values forecast, I have adjusted my seasonal forecast totals slightly

The SPC indicates an MODERATE risk for severe thunderstorms and strong to intense tornadoes today. Please refer to the link above for severe weather updates, or click on the graphic for access:
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK



STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 12
TOTAL HURRICANES :      4 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

The NHC continues is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm ARTHUR
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast from 00Z for the next 24 – 72 hours
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm ARTHUR

11:00 AM EDT Wed Jun 17
Location: 28.6°N; 95.8°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb / 29.56 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

From the NHC Advisory
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Sargent, Texas to High Island, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/171453.shtml?

ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT1+shtml/171454.shtml?

NHC LOCAL PRODUCTS FOR ARTHUR
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at1+shtml/171524.shtml?

KEY MESSAGES (LINKED)


You will note in the following satellite loops that the center is located pretty much over land, and water vapor loop imagery indicates dry air now affecting the system:
ARTHUR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

ARTHUR WATER VAPOR LOOP

ARTHUR was moving toward the NE at 9 mph. Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers, there has been a change to the steering currents, which have now kept the center of ARTHUR over land. Based on this and analysis of forecast steering, ARTHUR will now most likely remain slightly inland, or straddle the coast line. Based on this development, I agree with the NHC forecast track, which lies close to the HWFI hurricane model in the 12Z guidance.

FROM THE NHC:
There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

RAL 12Z INVEST ARTHUR TRACK GUIDANCE

Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph. Based on analysis of current and forecast wind shear, ARTHUR was under some 30 – 35 kts of wind shear, and has lost the upper level divergence that was present near the center. Wind shear is forecast to remain at this level. Divergence has shifted well east of the center.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR

200 MB PATTERN

Dry air is now noted in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere and based on the latest SHIPS diagnostic report, the 700 – 500 mb RH levels are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 40’s value range, which is not favorable for development. Based on my analysis, I DO NOT CONCUR with the NHC naming ARTHUR, as the system IS NOT ORGANIZED, and most likely will not become organized. This is from the NHC forecast discussion. As far as I am concerned, in my professional opinion, it does not meet the criteria:

The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.

The following is per NHC / NWS criteria:

Tropical Cyclone
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

In other words, the organized convection has to over or surrounding the center, and it must maintain its identity for 24 hours:

Tropical Disturbance
A tropical weather system with organized convection (generally 100-300 miles in diameter) originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or longer. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

NHC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW
36H 19/0000Z…DISSIPATED

The following graphics are from the HURRTRACK APP, and are from the NHC and WPC


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (LINKED)

RIP CURRENTS COMPOSITE FORECAST

I will continue to monitor ARTHUR for any significant changes to the forecast.  Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.