I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

The SPC indicates a MARGINAL risk for severe weather tomorrow. Please refer to the link above for severe weather updates, or click on the graphic for access:
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK


STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 0
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates shower and thunderstorm activity over NE Mexico and southern Texas.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

Based on the NHC 06Z surface analysis, Tropical Waves were located near 20W, 38W, 54W, and 70W Longitude as shown in the 06Z TPW (Total Precipitable Water) image.
CIMSS 06Z TPW

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC still has a LOW (30%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast is now indicating 40% probability for development between 48 – 96 hours out from the 00Z run.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

Analysis this morning of the ECMWF indicated the trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico could move just offshore of the south Texas coast near the Brownsville / Corpus Christi area and move NNE along the coast, eventually developing a 1002 mb closed low pressure area. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, the trough should be moving slowly northward today, and by early Tue., low level steering currents shift to a NNE direction, which COULD allow this forecast low to occur in the NW Gulf.

Currently, the NWS in Austin / San Antonio has issued Flood Warnings and various advisories for the south central Texas area. Please click on the following graphics to access these statements and advisories:

Models indicate by early Wed., wind shear is forecast to reduce allowing for the atmosphere to become marginally conducive, and upper divergence becoming established at the 200 mb level. Surface to mid level moisture will be very favorable based on TPW and mid level RH values. Even if this comes to fruition, I’m a little skeptical at the moment on development as again, the window for development to occur is very short. Unless the trough can move out over the open water soon and take advantage of the forecast conditions, development chances should remain low. IF anything were to develop due to any unforeseen changes, we would most likely see a Tropical Depression at best. Again, I am not looking for development at the moment. Some areas of Texas could experience isolated rainfall of 15+ inches.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST (48 – 72 HOURS)

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 200 MB STREAMLINE, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST




WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

CURRENT AND FORECAST STEERING LAYERS FORECAST

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.