I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

Based on analysis of updated ENSO forecast information from the IRI (International Research Institute), and comparison to the CPC RONI (Relative Oceanic Nino Index), I am making my final adjustment to my hurricane seasonal forecast totals. CSU has also made an adjustment in their totals, as El Nino is forecast to continue strengthening.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

IRI ENSO FORECAST PLUMES

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin. An MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex) was noticed in the Gulf.

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated tropical waves near 37W, 66W, and 73W. I did notice a wave near 47W.
CIMSS 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

I have noticed during the past 72 hours, the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast model is “sniffing out” and area once again, off the SEUS coast. The model has been consistent and began at a 10-20% probability for development, and has been increasing the probability which is now at a solid 50% probability with just a slightly larger area coverage. This is most likely based on the forecast of a frontal boundary stalling out, and developing a possible area of low pressure (Deja vu).
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 96 – 144 HOURS

Based on my analysis today of various models, a couple of other models are pretty much inline with the ECMWF, and going with the ECMWF, a 1016 mb broad area of low pressure is currently forecast to form off the SEUS coast OOA JUL 14 – JUL 15, from a frontal boundary that is forecast to become stationary over the area around that time. Analysis of the current wind shear forecast, surface moisture (PWAT), 700mb RH, and 200mb streamline forecast, along with forecast CHI200 anomalies indicates that although a couple indicators may not be optimal, initial conditions should be favorable for some slow development if the surface low does in fact form. Indications suggests ample moisture from the surface to the mid level, some moderate divergence aloft by the 200 mb streamline and CHI200 anomalies forecast, and a radial shear pattern.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, WIND SHEAR, 200 MB STREAMLINE, PWAT, AND 700 MB RH FORECAST 144 HOURS FROM 00Z





CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST

Bottom line…while initial conditions are currently forecast to be favorable for development, it does not mean development is a sure thing. The favorable conditions quickly become unfavorable by around JUL 16 -17. Given the low would only have a very brief period to take advantage of the favorable conditions, at this time I do not believe development of a depression will occur. I will however continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

I do not expect tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.