I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system, or a severe weather threat of a SLIGHT risk or above).

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred
GOES 19 IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on the NHC 06Z Surface Analysis map, Tropical Waves were located near 40W, 52W and 78W longitude. Black lines represent the axis of a wave.
CIMSS 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE

Based on analysis this morning, the ECMWF model continues to indicate lowering MSLP anomalies JUN. 04 – JUN.05 in the Gulf, as well as the GFS over the Yucatan. The GFS still indicates a tropical system in the southern Gulf, however this forecast by the GFS is 13 days out. The GFS as been notorious during the past few seasons with a bias for early storm projection that never materializes. A 13 day projection should NOT be considered accurate.
ECMWF AND GFS 168 HOUR MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST

Current SST’s are warm enough in the Caribbean, Gulf and Gulfstream to sustain development. The minimum SST for tropical development is 26.5C or 80F (79.7)
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

The ECMWF MJO and ACCESS-S2 phase space models forecast shows the MJO entering PHASE 8 by the beginning of June. Based on past research, the ACCESS-S2 is supposed to be fairly accurate with the MJO forecast. The JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast currently indicates upward motion (BLUE COLOR) over the Pacific, eastward into the Atlantic, including the Caribbean sea and the Gulf up to June 26, and the ECMWF EPS MEAN from 28 May through 12 June. Upward motion from the MJO can be favorable for tropical development as it can promote divergence aloft.

CURRENT ECMWF AND ACCESS-S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

JMA CH1200 ANOMALIES FORECAST (30 MAY – JUN 05)

JUN 06 – JUN 12

JUN 13 – JUN 26

ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES MEAN 28 MAY – 02 JUN.

JUN 02 – JUN 07

JUN 07 – JUN 12

The following Tropical Storm Density anomaly map indicates the impact of the MJO for tropical development in PHASE 8 and 1. The map is based on actual observations (orange and red) and indicates the most likely areas to experience development.

TROPICAL STORM DENSITY MAP

The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability is still indicating a very low probability of development in the Gulf in about 7 days, however the ensemble has been becoming more concentrated and bullish with development in the EPAC, which indicates a 20% probability in 7 days, and a 50% probability in 10 days. While both the ECMWF and GFS indicate a lowering of MSLP as mentioned earlier, the ECMWF currently develops a low south of the TX / LA border at 180 hours in the forecast period. It was noted there is a slight improvement with wind shear, along with ample surface and mid level moisture. However, this is just one run, and the 00Z run was used for both models. I will be taking a look at the 12Z runs when they become available as this run will be more accurate regarding today, and will see if there is any consistency. For now, I do not expect development.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY (HOUR 192 – 240)

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER



I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days. I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.