I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 12
TOTAL HURRICANES :      4 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin.

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated tropical waves near 29W, 58W, and 68W
CIMSS 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

Satellite loop imagery indicates an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has developed in conjunction with a developing surface low from a stationary frontal boundary over the area I’ve been monitoring for the past few days off the SEUS coast.
SEUS IR AND VIS SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC now indicates a LOW (10%) probability for tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The current ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast from 00Z has increased its probability for cyclone development to 90% – 95% during the next 72 hours. Quite the discrepancy from the NHC probability.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


The NHC may conduct a low level investigation mission on Wed. The following is the updated POD (Plan Of the Day) from CARCAH (Chief Arial Reconnaissance Coordination All Hurricanes):
NOUS42 KNHC 291336
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0940 AM EDT MON 29 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER…..26-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31.0N 71.5W FOR 01/1800Z.

Based on my analysis today, and going with the ECMWF, the model closes off a 1016mb low pressure area off the coast near 32.0N;72.0W this evening. Conditions are still forecast to be pretty much conducive by that time with a reduction in wind shear, and development of a radial shear pattern. Conditions do not appear to be optimal for tropical development though. Although shear reduces and a radial pattern develops briefly, and somewhat favorable precipitable water (PWAT or TPW) and favorable mid level relative humidity is forecast, the 200mb streamline forecast pattern still indicates divergence aloft will be very minimal, even though the low will be somewhat within the Right Rear entrance region of a 200 mb and 500 mb jetstreak. This region tends to provide some divergence in the upper atmosphere. This only has a short window to try and develop, as in 48 hours from 00Z, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development with an increase in wind shear, and intrusion of dry air.

Analysis of the current forecast thermal diagram still suggests this to be cold core in nature, but appears to try and transition to a shallow warm core low close to its dissipation stage.

Unless there is something I am not seeing, I have to agree with the NHC probability. So, we pretty much have another wait and see system in which development will rely on how conditions actually play out. My current thoughts on the ECMWF EPS probabilities is that the model may be thinking something sub-tropical given that analysis of the surface winds forecast indicates max sustained winds removed well away from the “center”of the low.

As far as forecast motion, the current steering layer is from NW to SE. By Late Tue. / early Wed., steering is forecast to change from NE to SW, and should allow for the area to move toward the coast.
CURRENT AND FORECAST STEERING


ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, WIND SHEAR, MID LEVEL HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST FORECAST 00Z (24 HOURS)




I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes in the forecast.

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.