I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good afternoon everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF we get a consistent probability indicating development, or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates the disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf, associated with a weak low pressure area, has greatly dissipated due to strong wind shear of around 50 knots, and dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere (noted in current water vapor imagery).

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

GOES 19 GULF IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

GOES 19 GULF WATER VAPOR LOOP (LINKED)

CURRENT WIND SHEAR

The weak low pressure is forecast to cross the Louisiana coast later today. Analysis of forecast surface wind maps indicated sustained winds should now be under 30 mph. Please click on the following link for the NWS office New Orleans / Baton Rouge for information regarding this low.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

The NHC does not indicate any development during the next 7 days
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Elsewhere, the global models (ECMWF and GFS) have been consistent now in at least 8 – 10 runs in hinting at possible development in the Yucatan Channel / Gulf area beginning in about 8 to 10 days. Since the models have been persistent at this (although various locations and intensity), and the probabilities forecast fluctuating between 30% – 40% between days 7 – 10, I decided to touch on it. This again is not meant to hype or worry folks. It is meant for an advanced awareness in that this COULD occur, and is not set in stone. I’ll give you a good example…in previous seasons, I’ve seen the models indicate development from day 10 out in the forecast period, up to 24 hours prior. Then, when the time came for the development….ZERO, NADA, ZILCH! The models had dropped everything and no development occurred. Blown forecast on my part? NO. My forecasts are only as good as the information I have at hand to analyze.

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 30 – 35% probability for development between days 7 – 10
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


The ECMWF and GFS models do indicate low pressure developing, however at different locations and intensity, with the GFS breaking off a small area of low pressure from the main entity. Based on my analysis, I prefer the ECMWF solution.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST (180 HOURS)


Based on my analysis of current 850 mb streamlines forecast maps, this “low” appears to develop from the CAG (Central American Gyre), which is forecast to become active in about 5 days The following is from the NCEP African Desk GFS 850 mb forecast (CAG is circled)

The following is linked to an article explaining the CAG

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, surface to mid level moisture, the forecast indicates conditions to become somewhat favorable to favorable for development with the formation of a radial shear pattern, and ample moisture from the surface up to the mid level of the atmosphere. Analysis of the 200 mb forecast map indicates somewhat of an upper level divergent pattern. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is still slated to be entering phase 1, with a slowing of its forward motion. This will aid in favorable conditions. Based on everything analyzed, we could very well have a good probability of some type of development in the Gulf by mid month, should these conditions remain consistent. IF anything does occur, right now models suggest by forecast surface pressure a Tropical Depression or minimal Tropical Storm. This however will become more accurate once we get to 5 days out in the forecast period.

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER



ECMWF 200 MB FORECAST

ACCESS-S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST (LINKED TO AN ARTICLE EXPLAINING THE IMPACT OF THE MJO)

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.