Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   7
TOTAL HURRICANES:         2
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Gabrielle is still a major hurricane.  The 2 waves we’ve been monitoring have been designated INVEST 93 L and INVEST 94L.  2 large Tropical Waves are noted over Central Africa.  Water vapor imagery indicates that dry air is still a factor in the Atlantic basin.  Again, as we get into late SEP. and into OCT., we’ll have to monitor the Central American Gyre or CAG for any areas of development.  I have links to articles on the CAG at the end of this synopsis.

IF forecast conditions for the MJO come to fruition, I still expect some kind of increase in activity, although the amount is unknown given slight discrepancies in the MJO forecast and CHI200 anomalies predictions.  The MJO is currently stalled in the “null” phase, but is very close to phase 8.  This may explain the current increase in wave activity.  IRT the forecast and phases, I have drawn a circle on the current MJO phase diagram.  This indicates where Dexter and Erin developed…Phase 2.  You’ll note though how weak the signal was at the time.  The current forecast indicates a much stronger signal may occur.
MJO CURRENT PHASE SPACE

MJO PHASE SPACE FORECAST

Gabrielle remains a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir – Simpson scale.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT  advisory, the following information was available on Gabrielle:
11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 23
Location: 33.9N;58.3W
Moving: ENE 20 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb / 27.99 in.
Max sustained: 140 mph
HURRICANE GABRIELLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


GABRIELLE WIND RADII

Based on the NHC motion, GABRIELLE was moving toward the ENE.  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue for the next 48 hours, with a shift back toward the NNE shortly thereafter.  Model guidance is in good agreement, and I agree with the 12Z model guidance TVCA, which is in the model cluster and inline with the NHC forecast track.  
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST MAP


RIP CURRENTS

Based on analysis of current shear, Gabrielle is currently experiencing moderate wind shear, and dry air encroaching on her western periphery, along with a deterioration of the upper level outflow, hence the current satellite imagery of a “one sided” storm.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP

Based on the current analysis,global models and recent SHIPS diagnostic report indicate wind shear to continue to increase for the remainder of the period, with values becoming 50+ kts within 72 hours.  Based on the deterioration of the upper level outflow pattern, dry air beginning to affect the western periphery, and forecast of increased wind shear, Gabrielle should begin a weakening trend later today, and continue to weaken until she attains post – tropical status.  Based on this analysis, I agree with the current NHC forecast intensity:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a MEDIUM (60%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days, for newly designated INVEST 94L.  The ECMWF EPS indicates a 65% probability
94L SATELLITE LOOP

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 23
Location: 17.3N;62.0W
Moving: W 18 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
The INVEST was currently moving to the West (275 degrees).  I am not going to post the initialized guidance, as information at the moment is scarce, and the models depicted are of statistical and climatology, lacking any dynamic and consensus data.  However it is depicted that this begins a WNW motion with the system eventually crossing the island of Hispaniola and entering the Bahamas.  Forecast steering maps are indicating this trend, however once again, without a well defined LLC or closed low, I can only define future track as a “hint”.  This means it’s too early to tell whether or not this INVEST and/or the second INVEST will pose a threat to the U.S.  The following is the ECMWF EPS and where it “thinks” both areas “may” wind up.  Again, at the moment, any forecast track should be considered low confidence:
ECMWF EPS 00Z FORECAST 120 HOURS

Based on satellite imagery, 94L looks less organized at the moment than does INVEST 93L.  Based on analysis of current wind shear, along with analysis of the ECMWF and current SHIPS diagnostic report, INVEST 94L is under some moderate shear, and is forecast to remain in moderate shear for about the next 48 hours in the period.  Thereafter from about 60 hours out to 120 hours in the forecast period, wind shear reduces with the development of a radial shear pattern over the system.  Models and SHIPS guidance both indicate the system to remain in a favorable surface to mid level moisture environment from 48 hours, out, with 94L being in moderate OHC values.  Based on my analysis, I believe slow development may occur, however I am not looking for this to occur right now until this possibly approaches the Bahamas, especially if it does cross over Hispaniola.
CIMSS 94L WIND SHEAR

I will continue to monitor 94L for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 48 – 72 hours.

The NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days for newly designated INVEST 93L.  The ECMWF EPS indicates a 75% probability:
INVEST 93L SATELLITE LOOP


NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following information was available on INVEST 93L:
8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 23
Location: 15.0N;48.0W
Moving: WNW 16 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 25 mph
The INVEST was moving toward the WNW.  Again, I am not going to post guidance due to the reasons stated above.  However based on analysis of forecast steering, 93L should remain on a WNW to NW motion during the next 72 – 96 hours, which is noted above in the EPS Ensemble map.  Again, until it becomes a system with a well defined, closed LLC, track guidance will most likely change numerous times.  I do want to mention that actual track of both systems will depend on which becomes the dominate low pressure area, as well as intensity given their close proximity.  In fact, in running the EPS probability animation, the model hints at a possible merger of both systems, or 93L becoming the dominate feature.
INVEST 93L SATELLITE LOOP


Based on satellite loop imagery, INVEST 93L looks a bit “healthier” than 94L in organization.  Based on my analysis of SHIPS diagnostics and current shear map, 93L is under some moderate shear of about 20 kts. 
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP 93L

Based on the SHIPS shear forecast, wind shear is supposed to fluctuate between favorable to moderate during the next 72 hours.  By 96 -120 hours, indications are that the system will be pretty much under the same forecast conditions as 94L, with ample surface to mid level moisture, and reduction in shear with a radial shear pattern developing over the system.  Based on this, some slow development could occur.  Again, this will all depend on actual forecast conditions, and how both INVESTS react to being in such close proximity to each other.  I will continue to monitor INVEST 93L during the next 72 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS