Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost, and for the children and parents in MN.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Regarding the current season, we are now at the climatological “peak”.  As a note, in my years of forecasting, I have seen the season peak as early as Sep. 05, and as late as Sep. 21.
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CLIMATOLOGY CHART

The following is an article from Dr. Phil Klotzbach from CSU, explaining the quiet conditions over the Atlantic thus far and what he expects for the remainder of the season: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025_0909_seasondiscussion.pdf
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

I really don’t know what to say, other than we’ll have to see what plays out in about 10 days.  Not much change in the Atlantic.  A good amount of dry air still persists over much of the Atlantic basin with the SAL still persistent, noted in pink.  You’ll note in the African satellite image, somewhat of an increase in tropical wave activity (yellow circles) with the red circle indicating the wave I am monitoring, and an increase in moisture in the water vapor loop imagery, over W. Africa.  This may possibly be due to the MJO having entered weak into phase 2.
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE  


The NHC does not indicate any development probability during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS now indicates a 60% – 65% probability of any development during the next 72 – 120 hours.  
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS



Based on analysis of the global models this morning, the area depicted in the probability forecast maps could show signs of slow development as the next tropical wave exits the coast of Africa in about 24 – 36 hours, with possible development occurring by 72 – 84 hours.  Analysis of the ECMWF indicates that initial conditions will be favorable for some slow development, with the premise of favorable precipitable water values, favorable mid level relative humidity, radial shear pattern and limited upper divergence.  The ECMWF indicates these conditions could remain with the wave out to 120 hours in the forecast period.  Based on my analysis, I will be monitoring the area during the next 72 – 96 hours.
CURRENT MDR SATELLITE LOOP

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST

ECMWF PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST

ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINES FORECAST

I know I keep repeating this, however if the MJO forecast is correct, according to the phase space diagram models and CHI200 anomalies forecasts, we may have to monitor the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf very carefully.  The updated phase space diagram forecast models now indicate the MJO entering a little stronger phase 8 and 1 in about 10 days (approximate), along with the CHI200 anomalies forecast indicating a fairly strong signal noted by the darker green in the CHI200 anomalies forecast maps.  I have posted both the ECMWF operational and EPS forecast.  Will this actually occur?  Hard to say, but these phase space diagrams have been doing a decent job this season, and the CHI200 anomaly forecast has been consistent in indicating phases 8, 1, and 2 of the MJO.  We will have to pay attention to this, especially as we get later into Sep. and into Oct. as the CAG (Central American Gyre) should begin to come back into play.  I have posted two articles regarding the CAG.  IF the current MJO forecast comes true, we could possibly see the same uptick we noted last season, during a 2 – 3 week period.  I will have the link to two MJO articles posted, following the graphics.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE FORECAST

ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES 5 DAY FORECAST SEP. 16 – SEP 21

ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST ANIMATION

The following is from the GFS which indicates upward motion of the MJO in blue and purple:
GFS RAIN RATE AND 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST FOR SEP. 17

DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)

MJO ARTICLES
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL106872
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS