I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I will once again be working my forecasts over the next 2 days around voting, automotive repairs, and chiropractic appointments.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. This synopsis is titled as SPECIAL, as the office is closed on the weekends.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, showing a vast amount of very dry air, even over the African continent.

The NHC GTWO indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast is now indicating a low probability of development of a Tropical Wave that is forecast to exit Africa soon.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 96 HOURS

Based on analysis of the ECMWF model 00Z run, although the model indicates some improvement in wind shear with somewhat of a reduction, partial radial shear pattern, and some slight divergence at the 200 mb level (weak upper level anticyclone), analysis of surface moisture (PWAT), and mid level relative humidity indicate a slight intrusion of the surrounding dry air that has dominated the Atlantic MDR since the start of the season. The conditions are pretty much the same situation we just experienced with INVESTS 92L and 94L. This is due to our side of the world still being influenced by the suppression of PHASE 6 of the MJO. Though as discussed previously that development can still occur near the central and western MDR region, local conditions surrounding a system have to be near “perfect” for development to occur.

Currently, the ECMWF does not indicate any development during the next 5 days in the forecast period.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 120 HOURS

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

The following should be taken with a grain of salt at this time, as this is 10 days out in the forecast period, and model accuracy really goes south after 5 days, and as you have seen for yourself, conditions can change NUMEROUS times between now and then. But I wanted to let you know I am monitoring it, since the 3 global models are in agreement, but indicating some varying positions. I will be utilizing the ECMWF.

Models are currently showing development at around 240 hours, with an area of weak low pressure near the Cape Verde islands, and an area east of Bermuda. Analysis of the ECMWF indicates at the moment for a reduction in wind shear, a somewhat more favorable upper level pattern, and an improvement in surface to mid level moisture. The recent forecast of the MJO now indicates the MJO may transition over to PHASE 8 briefly, which favors development more toward the SEUS coast and Gulf. However, the MJO CHI200 anomalies forecast from the ECMWF does indicate some very weak upward motion over the areas where the low pressure areas are shown by the faint green shading. The one negative factor regarding the MJO possibly going to PHASE 8, is it’s forward speed. The phase space diagram indicates the MJO quickly moves through phase 8 in a period of about 7 days. A quick forward motion like this usually does not support development. Regardless, I will be watching things and looking for consistency in the modeling.
ECMWF 240 HOUR MSLP ANOMALIES MAP

MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST 240 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days. Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.