I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I do not expect any development of a tropical system during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

Based on analysis of updated ENSO forecast information from the IRI (International Research Institute), and comparison to the CPC RONI (Relative Oceanic Nino Index), I am making my final adjustment to my hurricane seasonal forecast totals. CSU has also made an adjustment in their totals, as El Nino is forecast to continue strengthening.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin. The forecast shows plenty of African dust in the forecast during the next 5 days:
NASA GEOS SAL FORECAST

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated tropical waves near 46W, 72W, and 82W.
CIMSS 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast model has decreased its probability for cyclone development off the SEUS coast. The probability has decreased from 50% to 30%. The model is supposedly picking out a broad, weak area of low pressure in approximately 96 hours. However models indicate the low to be further away from the coast.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 96 – 120 HOURS

Based on my analysis today, models are pretty much inline with the ECMWF, and going with the ECMWF, although the model indicates initial favorable conditions where the probability is centered, these conditions become less favorable over a 24 hour period. Conditions where the actual low is forecast to be positioned, are forecast to be marginal at best. Given the update information, I am currently not seeing any development of this, unless conditions take a change to a more favorable environment. I will however continue to monitor this area, should a low develop near the coast.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES 96 HOURS FROM 00Z

Elsewhere, the Cyclone Formation Probability is currently indicating a 40% probability of development of a tropical wave it indicates will exit Africa in about 4 – 5 days. Conditions at that time are forecast to be somewhat favorable with high surface to mid level moisture (over a limited area), and mostly divergent pattern at the 200 mb level. Wind shear is forecast to be marginally favorable. After day 7 in the forecast period, conditions are forecast to become less favorable as the wave heads NW toward the Cape Verde Islands, with the ECMWF showing dissipation of the wave and associated low. Based on this, I am not looking for development of this wave / low.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 144 – 168 HOURS

INITIAL FORECAST CONDITIONS

PWAT AND 700MB RH


WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


The ECMWF does not indicate any development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.