Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. First, I want to assure the reader that the INVEST in the Gulf is not anything I missed. On my last analysis, models were not indicating this in the Gulf, and it appears to be from a trough split of a frontal boundary that was stationary a couple days ago over a portion of the southern U.S.

Second, the NHC for some reason is holding onto the remnants of DOLLY, to which there is no discernible closed low pressure system on satellite imagery, so this synopsis will focus mainly on INVEST 97L. IF DOLLY does re-develop over the Bahamas, it will literally be a miracle, as CURRENT forecast conditions do not support it.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems. Subtropical systems will be marked in purple:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC does not indicate tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days, and is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm EDOUARD
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 15Z (11:00 a.m. EDT) advisory from the NHC, the following was available on EDOUARD:
11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 01
Location: 29.4°N; 93.3°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This
is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/011445.shtml?

ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT5+shtml/011447.shtml?

NHC LOCAL PRODUCTS (CLICK LINK)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT5+shtml/011447.shtml?

KEY MESSAGES (LINKED)

WPC 3 DAY QPF FORECAST

WPC 3 DAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK



EDOUARD CLOSEUP IR, VIS, WV AND RADAR LOOP

EDOUARD was moving toward the NW as of the 11:00 a.m. advisory. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, EDOUARD should continue on this track pretty much up until landfall. Based on this analysis, I prefer the forecast track of the HWFI which is pretty much inline with the NHC forecast track. Based on this, if nothing changes, the “center” should come in around or east of Baytown or along the TX / LA border sometime later today.
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NHC FORECAST TRACKING MAP

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates some slight shear, which at the time of this graphic was analyzed by the NHC at 4.0 kts. Although there may be some slight shear, the upper level wind pattern is now producing outflow aloft, which will offset the wind shear effect.
EDOUARD WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


EDOUARD CURRENT TPW

Based on analysis of the ECMWF, GFS and CMC models, and using the ECMWF the models all indicate fairly favorable conditions to remain with the system up until landfall. The models keep a little to no shear pattern over it, with an improved divergent upper pattern, favorable surface moisture based on analysis of TPW, and mid level relative humidity values. Though in the larger scheme dry air is nearby, current and forecast TPW remains high, as well as favorable RH values up to 500 mb. Based on this, and with the system now in 50 – 60 KJ/cm2 and 30C deg SST’s, the storm does have some potential for R.I. prior to landfall should none of the conditions change. Not saying it is definite, but for now, until I see what actually takes place, and based on the NHC discussion at 5:00 a.m. regarding reconnaissance data, the NHC intensity forecast may not be out of the question. The following is the link for the 5:00 a.m. discussion mentioning what I stated about R.I.:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al05/al052026.discus.004.shtml

I am including the NHC forecast from both 5:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. The NHC did release a special update at 10:00 a.m. indicating EDOUARD is currently strengthening with sustained winds of 50 mph. The updated intensity from the NHC has not increased the forecast winds, however further intensification could occur should the center remain over water a little longer than forecast.

NHC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 5: 00 A.M.
INIT 01/0900Z 29.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 29.7N 93.8W 55 KT 65 MPH…ON THE COAST
24H 02/0600Z 30.6N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 02/1800Z 31.7N 95.9W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 03/0600Z…DISSIPATED

11:00 A.M.
INIT 01/1500Z 29.4N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 30.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
24H 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

I will continue to monitor EDOUARD closely during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere, I do not expect and tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.