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Does the Gulf Blob Get a Yellow Circle? NE Gulf ... NOAA Forecast Maps Hinting Loudly. Hot Temps in Colorado and Montana...High Hot Ridge. To the South, Close In... Maybe. Pay Attention & Have a Good Week!

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I always enjoy listening to Mike. Old habits die hard, and some old habits are golden so not letting them go. Listening to Mike talk allows my mind to see possibilities in my head and think on Hurricane History and well all we are talking is possibilities. But, hey there are possibilities. Mike joked he's not talking on anything big, just a bit below 1000 millibars and I giggled and thought "I'll take that!" and that shows you the state of the summer of 2026. Just falling below 1000 MB catches our attention. Especially as it is in a "close in" an area that is favored CLIMO wise and favored in a developing El Nino.

As for El Nino I have to say any time I mention "El Nino" with a year online I get everyone's opinions. Again El Nino forms in real time, some years slower and some faster. Sometimes forecasts are not met and other years they are exceeded even in our wildest expectations. When I post a bit of the blog or an image from the blog, someone invariable screams out "That wasn't an El Nino" but had they read the blog they would know what I was saying is a picture doesn't always tell a thousand words nor the whole story. El Ninos do not start on a dime, there is no light switch...they build, they wane and they slowly fade away. And, yet elements of an El Nino Season are there before the official bulletin from NOAA and they continue to slowly hold a grip on a season even when we officially say "we are not in El Nino anymore" as anyone who has watched a pot boil they know what I mean. You can turn the heat off (especially on a electric range" and the water is still boiling and does so for a while til it settles down some. Nuff said.

Mike oddly just said as if he is reading my mind, and sometimes he does.... "in developing El Nino years the Caribbean is usually cut off" and that is true and more so today as wind shear is strong and it owns the Carib the way SAL owns the open Atlantic. July is not really such an easy time to get a tropical system, though the name Bertha does have some history. And, in the protective cradle of the NE Gulf close in to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi it has a chance.

Water Vapor from Tropical Tidbits

While I am showing Gulf Convection lingering.

I'm showing you here it's lingering...
...to the South of a Huge High.

It's hot and dry.
"how hot is it Bobbi?"

76 at sunrise.....
....topping out at 99 degrees.

In Billings, Montana.
That's kind of crazy.

I'll add "better there than here"

I need a break in the Carolinas.

Notice I am NOT obsessing yet on the waves.

Though Brian Shields "Mr Weatherman" on YT is...

...and so he should be as Trinidad & Tobago be getting rain.
Even though nothing develops they get storms.

Even though we have no named storm...

...the Gulf Blob has been tenacious.

7 Day shows more rain.
Note friend near Houston's backyard is flooded.
She lost power yesterday.
Just because it doesn't have a name.....
....doesn't mean it might not impact you!

Off the coast of the Carolinas.....

....close in along the NE Gulf
pay attention is all I'm saying.

While I am looking for tropical possibilities, I'm adding this as a reminder to pay attention. Yesterday's very heavy rains in the Raleigh area and Down East towards the coast ended up with Flash Flood Warnings. Canoers on the Neuse River had to be rescued. Being honest, heavy rains were in the forecast but forecasts in this neck of the woods often are busted, it's worth still paying attention. All week oak trees and tall Carolina Pines have crashed into homes, fallen on backroads in the dark of the night that are only noticed when you crash your car into them. So pay attention tropically and locally weather wise as we in the South are back into our normal rain pattern late in the afternoon. Be it on the river in a canoe or out by the ocean when thunder suddenly roars, go indoors! Pay attention!