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Models Develop Next Set of Waves Off Africa. GFS Sees Several Storms. EURO Sees 1. Lots of Models. Lots of Waves. Game Is NOT Over!

4 hours ago 2

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This is new.
We now have an area in the Atlantic
...where development is favorable.

Or at least suggested by NOAA 
to be a little bit favorable.

It's a start. All beginnings need a start and this is the time of year when usually waves begin to actually connect and move forth rather than sputtering out dead in the water. Talk on the street is that this is the wave over Africa that has the best chance to develop. Some models develop both waves, of course, but others only take this one seriously. The long range models we have been watching are getting closer to medium range models and so we take them a bit more seriously.

It is a big wave.
IR is dramatic.

WV shows us how much moisture it really has...

That's a whole lotta moisture.
The test will be after it dives into the water.

We are definitely watching.

This is the EURO.

I like to show the EURO first.

This would be typical for a solid El Nino Year.

Turns fast, sweeps up into the Atlantic.

Sunday the GFS develops the lead wave.

That's the 1st good wave.

On the 27th (Thurday) it develops the 2nd one.

Note out of site closer in...
...the GFS has the lead wave off the E Coast.

Curving away, but bringing nice waves.

Many see this as a threat to New England.

others in NC see this as a threat to NC

Somewhere someone sees this as a threat to Bermuda.

(they probably have a cruise planned)

And that is how we get here...on Sept 3rd.

We have a series of waves that pull further North than the last, move up into the Atlantic a bit more and seem scheduled for recurvature closer in to the USA.  And IF these waves developed some we still have to watch as storms that take a track WNW more N of WNW that take them up and OVER the Islands put them in a position where they can make landfall close in IF the high suddenly pushes them West or a forecast cold front fizzles and that's how we got Andrew. And, Florence was a totally different storm from most and yet she made landfall in the Carolinas taking a track at a higher latitude where that year the water was very warm and provided fuel for her to fight off shear. 

Oh look there was Andrew.

Expected to be a Carolina storm probably.

Because of a strong cold front....

...that wasn't so strong and fizzled.

Hurricane Florence 2018

Many said she'd never make it across.

No way, fizzle from shear.

I said she would because it was obvious

When a storm fights off shear over and over....

....and keeps on going.

Those are the ones - you have to watch.

So stay aware, stay prepared.

And have an awesome day!

Time will tell...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever.

A song from the Summer of 2018

(ps Florida Georgia Line are back now... )



I knew I hadn't written a blog in a few days, but didn't realize it was so long. Well, long for me,  but here I am trying to find something to talk on that is more than just talk. Images from Lala have been feeding in and the immensity of their tragedy is apparent. When water runs downhill carrying rocks made from cooled lava on a slick river bed or even an stream bed that is usually empty the water runs fast, very fast and carries boulders with it and well we saw this in Helene in North Carolina. Each hurricane is different, each story is different and yet they all have their commonalities.

Elevation + Rain = Pain.
It's all about terrain.


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