I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. Since my Mrs. is at work today, and the NHC has added the probability regarding the wave soon to exit the African coast, I decided to open the office.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)

The NHC GTWO has designated a LOW (20%) probability for development of a non – tropical low in the NE Atlantic during the next 7 days, and an area of low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic. Area #1 is under 25 kts of westerly shear, and water vapor imagery indicates dry air intrusion into the core at the moment. The thermal diagram indicates this is now barely warm core, and is forecast to transition back to cold core by tomorrow. The way this most likely transitioned to a weak warm core, is from the occluded front (most likely a warm seclusion) where warmer air quickly overrides the colder air and becomes trapped in the core at mid to upper levels. You will note this front in the graphic provided, shaded in purple. Area #2 is lacking any surface convergence and upper divergence, with the forecast calling for limited moisture as it is in a dry surrounding based on current water vapor images. Based on what I am seeing, I am not looking for development as the forecast is calling for dry air to remain a factor, and area #1 would have to separate from any frontal boundaries, and have deep convection “near”the center to even be designated as sub-tropical.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

AREA 1

AREA 1 THERMAL DIAGRAM

NHC 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS

Understanding Warm Seclusions:
Definition: It represents the mature phase of an extratropical cyclone (based on the Shapiro-Keyser model) where warm air gets trapped at the center of circulation.

Visual Appearance: It often creates a cloud-free, eye-like feature on satellite imagery that mimics a tropical cyclone, though it lacks deep surrounding convection.

AREA 2

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast indicates a 80% probability for development of the low currently near 60W, and a 70% probability in 48 – 96 hours for the tropical wave that should exit Africa by Monday. This wave is currently located near 1.0W. I’ve already mentioned my take on the area near 60W
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS

96 – 144 HOURS

Elsewhere, the 3 global models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ) are once again in agreement of development regarding the tropical wave forecast to exit Africa on Monday. The ECMWF is still indicating some very favorable initial conditions as the wave exits into the EATL, and out around 96 hours in the forecast, very favorable surface to mid level moisture is noted, with a well established radial shear pattern, with moderate upper level divergence noted in the 200 mb streamline forecast map. By the 28th in the current forecast run, the model indicates some dry air intrusion at the 500 mb level, with the radial shear pattern becoming a little more zonal with some increase in wind shear. However, as this system approaches 60W later in the forecast period, the model indicates conditions to improve with an increase in moisture at 500 mb, re-establishment of the radial shear pattern, and weak upper level divergence.

Based on this analysis, I believe we may see some steady organization of the wave during the first 72 – 120 hours, with a little slower rate likely as it moves further west , especially as it encounters the less favorable conditions mentioned. Again, right now it’s going to be more of a wait and see scenario, until I can see how actual conditions pan out, and should forecast conditions mimic what has been analyzed this morning.

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 5 days.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 120 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days. Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.