I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I do not expect any development of a tropical system during the next 5 – 7 days.

I will be out of the office from Jul. 23 through the 31st to visit my son in PA.

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

Based on analysis of updated ENSO forecast information from the IRI (International Research Institute), and comparison to the CPC RONI (Relative Oceanic Nino Index), I am making my final adjustment to my hurricane seasonal forecast totals. CSU has also made an adjustment in their totals, as El Nino is forecast to continue strengthening.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP

Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin.

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated a tropical wave near 79W. The CIMSS TPW site was down so I am utilizing the ECMWF 06Z PWAT map
ECMWF 06Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast model is now indicating 3 different areas for possible tropical cyclone formation. One thing I have noticed thus far this season, in discussing with my colleague, Meteorologist Wayne Brumbaugh, creator of the groups General Weather / 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Facebook, that the ECMWF EPS probability forecasts have been a little aggressive in probabilities for Tropical Cyclone development. The model has 3 different categories to pick from regarding probabilities: Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes. Regardless, there is a quite bit to go over this morning. The model during the next 72 – 192 hours (days 6 – 8) has picked out 3 different areas. We’ll begin closer to home (Area 1)
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 – 192 HOURS
24 – 72 HOURS

48 – 96 HOURS

144 – 192 HOURS


Based on my analysis today, models are pretty much inline with the ECMWF and have become a little more consistent in showing a possible low pressure area developing in the eastern Gulf OOA 20 JUL, currently depicting a 40% probability of a Tropical Depression. This low appears to occur from a trough split due to a frontal boundary, which initiates a low over the Mid Atlantic region. As the split occurs, the low is forecast to move southwestward and enter the extreme eastern Gulf. Initial conditions appear favorable for possible development with favorable moisture at the surface, with favorable relative humidity up to the mid level. The wind shear forecast indicates relaxing shear and a radial shear pattern pretty much over the area, with a decent divergent pattern, though not optimal. Develop is going to depend on what direction this may move once it enters the Gulf. IF it moves west, conditions appear to remain favorable enough for slow development. IF it moves north, it will encounter a more hostile environment. Currently, it’s a toss up as ensembles are split on direction. I’ll know more on this as models continue to update and IF we actually get a low that develops so track guidance models can be implemented. This is nothing to get hyper about…we just need to be in monitoring mode. I will continue to monitor this closely during the next 5 – 7 days for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
INITIAL FORECAST CONDITIONS ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES

PWAT AND 700MB RH


WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


AREA 2
An area of low pressure has developed along a stalled frontal boundary and currently has an indicate 90% probability for development. However, based on my analysis of surface to mid level moisture, upper level winds and forecast wind shear, conditions appear to resemble a more baroclinic atmosphere with dry air mixing in and wind shear on the borderline of unfavorable, along with diffluence at 200 mb which is very minimal. SST also indicate cooler temperatures which combined with the other factors would constitute a sub-tropical entity or even baroclininc, especially if the low remain attached to the frontal boundary. The ECMWF indicates this to continue toward a NE direction, heading toward the Azores, but moving just west of the islands. This will place the low in more of an unfavorable environment and lower SST’S. I will monitor this, however this will be no concern for the U.S. or any landmasses based on current analysis.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES

OISST SST MAP

AREA 3
Models continue to indicate a Tropical Wave to exit the coast of Africa in approximately 72 hours, and developing a weak low at around 96 – 120 hours. You will note the wave exit the coast in the following PWAT image at around 66 hours in the animation. Once this wave enters the Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde Islands, initial conditions appear to be favorable for some slow development. The probability for development is shown at 70% in 96 hours. Right now, the ECMWF calls for this to move westward, and as it does, conditions will gradually become unfavorable for any development. I will continue to monitor this during the next 5 days for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
EATL PWAT ANIMATION

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5-7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.