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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 1 Outlook: FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
CSU – MLP DAY 1 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML PROBABILITY DAY 1

The SPC indicates a MARGINAL risk for severe weather in the DAY 2 outlook:
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)

CSU – MLP DAY 2 PROBABILITY FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

NSSL ML DAY 2 PROBABILITY


DAY1 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT:
…MS/AL This morning…
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and the overall severe risk.

…TX/LA This Afternoon…
Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much of the southeastern United States today, with several small perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

…LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening…
By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

The following maps are from NADOCAST for tornado and hail probabilities.  
12Z NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

12Z NADOCAST SIGTOR PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

12Z NADOCAST HAIL PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

12Z NADOCAST SIGHAIL PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

Storms were already in progress from early morning, and continue t0 progress eastward.  The forecast calls for re-intensification later in the afternoon hours to early evening hours.  Based on my analysis of the severe weather indices, today’s forecast calls for a moderately unstable atmosphere over the risk area.  All severe threats are possible with damaging thunderstorm winds and gusts, tornado activity, and hail (some of which could be isolated large hail). This is based on analyzed DCAPE of 500+ j/kg, strong bulk wind shear, lifted indices, MLCAPE, and EHI values.  Any tornado activity should remain weak (EF0 – EF1).  The strongest forecast indices and parameters should occur within the SLIGHT risk outline and 5% TORNADO outline, over E. LA, and over MS., with the greatest probability for tornadoes occurring over MS., based on current forecast information.

Based on analysis of model animations, the current outlook, and analysis of indices, the strongest convection and indices should occur approximately between 1:00 P.M. CST JAN 09 – 7:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09.  Please visit the SPC homepage via the link provided for any changes to the forecast today.
CAPE VALUES FORECAST

DEW POINT FORECAST

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, HRRR 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF model guidance.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.  Bear in mind, MAXIMUM indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 500- 2000 j/kg-1                  
MLCAPE: 500 – 1500 j/kg-1                   
MUCAPE: 500 – 2000 j/kg-1                
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 250 m2/s2               
SRH 0 -3 km: 150 – 300 m2/s2        
SRH EFFECTIVE: 50 – 100 m2/s2          
L. I.: -1 to -4                                                   
SCP: 1.0 – 7.0                                          
STP: 1.0 – 2.4  
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 kts – 70 kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 30 kts – 40kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 5.0C – 7.0C   
DEWPOINT: 60F – 72F                                    
EHI: 0.7 – 2.1                                      
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 49C – 50C                     
K INDEX: 28C to 36C                                          
SWEAT INDEX: 425 – 460                          
THOMPSON INDEX: 29 to 40      
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000 – 30,000    

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09 – 9:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09 – 9:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09

HRRR 3KM SCP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09 – 9:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09

HRRR 3KM STP FORECAST 1:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09 – 9:00 P.M. CST JAN. 09

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER!
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view forecasts, any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST