I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I will once again be working my forecasts over the next 2 days around voting, automotive repairs, and chiropractic appointments.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. This synopsis is titled as SPECIAL, as the office is closed on the weekends.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, showing a vast amount of very dry air, even over the African continent. A strong tropical wave is noted south of the Cape Verde islands

The NHC GTWO indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 12Z this morning.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast indicates a low probability for development of the wave currently south of the Cape Verde islands. Currently, the ECMWF does not indicate development in this area, due to westerly wind shear and drier mid level air by 96 hours out in the forecast period. I will continue to monitor this for any significant changes to the forecast conditions
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 72 – 96 HOURS


120 – 168 HOURS

Elsewhere, the 3 global models (ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ) continue to be consistent in indicating some type of development as a wave exits the African coastline next week indicating right now anywhere from a 1012 mb closed low to a 1003 mb low pressure system. Analysis of the ECMWF shows some very favorable initial conditions by day 6 (144 hours in the forecast period), with a favorable reduction in wind shear and development of a radial shear pattern, along with a much improved upper level pattern (200 mb) showing a much more favorable divergent pattern aloft. Surface to mid level moisture values are shown to become very favorable, with even a big improvement up to the 500 mb level. The model is forecasting these conditions to remain in place with the wave from day 6 (144 hours) out to near day 10 (240 hours) in the forecast period. This portion will have to be re-visited as accuracy of the global models tends to go downhill after day 5 (120 hours) in the period, although the model has been consistent. The ECMWF EPS Cyclone formation probability forecast is indicating a medium probability at the moment.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 144 HOURS

PWAT FORECAST

700 MB RH FORECAST

500 MB RH FORECAST

WIND SHEAR FORECAST

200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

This more favorable environment will most likely be attributed to the MJO progressing briefly into phase 8. Although phase 8 is a little more favorable for development off the SEUS coast and the Gulf, the suggestion from the CHI200 anomalies forecast indicates some weak upward motion at 200 mb over the probability area.
MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST 144 HOURS

Based on all of these factors, there COULD be some slow development over the area. Development would tend to be slow as even though SST’s are warm enough, OHC (Ocean Heat Content) over the MDR region are not warm enough to support quicker development, or sustain a strong system until out to around 50W.
CURRENT OHC

Long story short, we will have to see IF the forecast conditions actually occur and are accurate. I will continue to monitor the situation during the next 5 – 7 days for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 168 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days. Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.