Tropical Storm Melissa has strengthened this afternoon and is likely to become a major hurricane by the start of next week.

While storm surge and damaging winds will be major concerns with the storm, the flooding and landslide threat associated with slow-moving Melissa will be the primary hazard.

A track just east of Jamaica would likely bring the biggest rain-related impacts (potentially over 300 mm) to Hispaniola and eastern Jamaica.

A track over, south, or west of Jamaica would bring the largest rain-related impacts to Jamaica and parts of Cuba.

Weather models are beginning to agree, but still have been shifting around over the past day.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches remain in effect for Jamaica and parts of Haiti. It goes without saying, but a land-falling major hurricane would bring devastating impacts to these islands. The system will pass south of Florida and poses no threat to Tampa Bay.