More than half of Europe’s demand for critical minerals (CRM) could be met within the continent itself if a robust recycling system is implemented, researchers have said.

Europe is currently facing difficulties in sourcing enough CRMs to fuel its green, digital and defence sectors. With many countries around the world decarbonising their energy grids and moving towards electric vehicles (EVs), global demand for the elements is expected to increase.

China has long been the dominant player in the market, accounting for around 70% of global mining production and over 90% of global processing of rare earth metals – a key subset of CRMs. While the elements can be found outside of China, decades of investment in supply chains mean the country has by far the most robust production pipeline. 

China has taken a hawkish approach to rare earth exports since US President Donald Trump’s decision to hike tariffs on the country in 2025. In April of that year, the decision to add a number of rare earth metals to the export control list saw global shortages as China flexed its dominance over the supply chain.

Researchers at the FutuRaM (Future Availability of Secondary Raw Materials) project have carried out an analysis of 42 critical elements contained in several waste streams, from electronic waste, vehicles and their batteries to wind turbines, slags and ashes and building construction and demolition debris.

Today, many strategically important materials, including lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, are largely lost during collection and/or waste processing today. But five CRMs – including platinum and rhodium – have recovery rates of over 80% thanks largely to well-established collection and processing routes.

The research found that by 2050, new recovery systems could enable Europe to recover between 4.1 and 5.7 million tonnes of CRMs annually, or up to 56% of predicted demand under a robust circular economy scenario. This would help reduce European reliance on imported materials and strengthen supply security for key technologies such as batteries, EVs and renewable solar and wind energy.

According to the report, with the right legislative and industrial choices made now, within 24 years some 17 CRMs – including cobalt, lithium and rare earth metals such as dysprosium and neodymium – could achieve recovery rates above 80%.

In the case of batteries specifically, current recycling capacity for lithium-ion technologies is still expanding. Significant quantities of partially processed battery materials known as ‘black mass’ are exported from Europe, meaning valuable resources are not fully recovered within the region.

Kees Baldé, senior scientific specialist at United Nations Institute for Training and Research, said: “Europe’s waste streams already contain vast quantities of critical raw materials. Harnessing this urban mine will be essential for strengthening supply security, supporting the clean energy transition and reducing environmental impacts.”