I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system, or a severe weather threat of a SLIGHT risk or above).

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf, which appears to be the beginning of weak low pressure which is now in the forecast. From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion: Strong to near- gale force wind are possible on the northern end of the trough over the north-central Gulf starting tonight as the low pressure forms.

GOES 19 IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

GOES 19 VISIBLE LOOP

The NHC does not indicate any development during the next 7 days
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 15% probability for development from the 12Z run during the next 24 – 72 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

All three global models are in agreement of lowering MSLP in the Gulf within the next 24 – 36 hours, with the ECMWF being consistent for the past 2 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST (24 – 72 HOURS)

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, mid level moisture, and surface moisture, most of the surface moisture is just east of the area, and wind shear is forecast to remain high. Based on this, I do not expect development of this area during the next 3 days. However, the increase in moisture will allow for some isolated minor flooding over eastern Louisiana due to an increase in precipitation, and possible minor coastal flooding. Currently, the ECMWF indicates winds of around 25 – 30 mph close to or on the coast with gusts to minimal tropical storm force. The NWS has issued a COASTAL FLOOD advisory, a SMALL CRAFT advisory, and RIP CURRENT statement for portions of the Louisiana coast. Please click the NWS WATCH / WARNING MAP to access advisories.
ECMWF WIND SPEED AND GUSTS FORECAST


Seas could reach 7 – 9 ft near the immediate coast
ECMWF WAVE WATCH FORECAST

WPC 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTAL FORECAST

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER



NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

Looking further into things, models are hinting at development in about 10 – 12 days in the Gulf, with the ECMWF and GFS showing consistency so far, with the ECMWF EPS probability at 25%. Given this is past the 7 day forecast period, this should not be considered accurate at the moment, and I will be monitoring the situation closely.

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days. I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.